Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
• Moscow-Pyongyang cooperation: North Korea will likely send fire-support combat formations and drones to the Russian region of Kursk.
• North Korean rules of engagement: Pyongyang has reportedly ordered its soldiers to avoid being taken alive at all costs, meaning they often blow themselves up.
• Battlefield update: The Russian military is pressing on in Velyka Novosilka, which may soon fall if Ukraine does not make a game-changing move.
• Intelligence agencies clash: Ukrainian intelligence detained a Russian spy network collecting data about Ukraine’s F-16 air warfare assets.
1. Assessing North Korea’s Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
More details are emerging as North Korea continues its direct involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
One interesting aspect is North Korean forces’ rules of engagement. Open-source indicators reveal that Pyongyang has ordered its fighters to avoid being taken as prisoners of war at all costs. In many cases, North Korean troops have blown themselves up to avoid being captured alive. This strict discipline explains the limited number of North Korean troops who have been taken prisoner—and the high number of North Korean casualties, which according to Ukrainian officials is near 4,000, enough to fill a brigade.
Tactical engagement visuals from the battlefield suggest that while the Korean People’s Army often makes mistakes while fighting under frequent drone strikes, its unit cohesion has been solid: Pyongyang’s troops have maintained their composure when exposed to Ukraine’s heaviest blows. Ukrainian troops who have engaged North Korean forces have said that Pyongyang’s fighters are far more disciplined than most of their Russian counterparts. The Ukrainian Special Forces Command’s X account recently posted the diary of an elite North Korean fighter who was killed in action in the Russian region of Kursk. His writings reveal a brainwashed commitment to the Workers’ Party of North Korea and to leader Kim Jong Un, highlighting the strict indoctrination Pyongyang’s military enforces.
Ukrainian personnel also praise North Korean troops’ marksmanship. Visuals of captured North Korean equipment suggest that the Kremlin has provided better infantry kits to Pyongyang’s fighters than it has given its own Russian servicemen. Nonetheless, uploads from the battlefield suggest that Ukraine’s first-person-view (FPV) drones have caught North Korean forces off guard, leading to mounting casualties at the hands of Ukrainian drone operators.
South Korean intelligence services have concluded that Pyongyang’s next move will likely involve sending loitering munitions to augment its light infantry, though it is unknown which systems. In recent years, North Korea has developed a loitering munitions baseline that resembles the Iran Shahed kamikaze drones that hit Ukraine nearly every day. Pyongyang is also seeking to replicate the Russian Lancet drone warfare system.
General Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, has assessed that Pyongyang will likely combat-deploy artillery and rocket troops to Kursk. Thus far North Korea has transferredKN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, 170mm-class Koksan heavy artillery, and 240mm-class multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to the Russian military. Previous editions of this report have presented open-source intelligence findings regarding these systems and concluded that North Korea would send fire-support troops to reinforce its current contingent in Kursk.
United States Defense Intelligence Agency assessments have emphasized North Korea’s tube artillery and rocket systems capabilities. Massed artillery and rocket salvos remain central to North Korea’s battle plan for a war on the Korean Peninsula. Open-source intelligence recently detected North Korean civilian trucks equipped with concealed 122mm-class rockets inside Russia. These platforms could menace Ukrainian defenses in urban and semi-urban battlefields.
In a war driven by artillery, Pyongyang’s fire-support troops could pose serious risks to the Ukrainian military, which is already fighting North Korea’s elite light infantry units. This report will continue to assess North Korea’s military role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially in Kursk.
2. Battlefield Assessment
The tactical situation shifted in the Kremlin’s favor over the past week. Russia made gains in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Despite conflicting reports from the area, it is clear that the Russian military has fought hard in Velyka Novosilka and has captured multiple positions along Ukraine’s defensive lines. The fight for the town is ongoing, but it is likely that Russia will soon capture it.
In Pokrovsk, the Russian military has maintained an offensive footing, with few signs emerging that the campaign there is anywhere near drawing to a close. In this theater, Russia is ramping up its use of fiber-optic-cable-connected FPV drones against Ukrainian heavy armor. These drones are resilient against electronic warfare (EW), and Ukrainian FPV operators are attempting to engage and kinetically intercept them.
Fighting continued in Kursk with high material losses and casualties. In Kharkiv, the Russian military has been attempting to make the most of its bridgeheads along the Oskil River. Nonetheless, no meaningful changes have occurred in the battlefield geometry in this area.
Ukraine also continued to launch long-range salvos deep into Russian territory. A drone storage facility in Oryol and the Ryazan oil refinery are among Ukraine’s most recent high-value targets. The Ukrainian Intelligence Service (SBU) also ran counterespionage operations against subversive Russian networks operating in Ukraine. Recently, SBU agents detained a group reported to belong to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) for spying on Ukraine’s F-16 combat aircraft.