It’s election day! If you haven’t already, go do your civic duty and vote. With that settled, we open this week with Miles on just what makes American democracy so unique and influential around the globe. Everyone worldwide has a vested interest in the outcomes of our elections, and China is no exception. Miles reviews the Chinese Communist Party’s outlook on our elections and highlights their past (and current) attempts to interfere in our democratic system. We then close with a quick glance again at the North Korean troops in Ukraine, but use this topic as a catalyst to take on the prevailing narratives about China’s thinking inside the evolving axis between China, Russia, and North Korea.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute’s China Center, hosted by Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat and their implications to the US and beyond.
Phil Hegseth:
It is Tuesday and it's Election Day. So if you haven't already, pause this episode, go do your civic duty and vote. Then come back, start this episode up and we'll open with Miles on just what makes American democracy so unique, impactful, and influential around the globe. Everyone worldwide has at least a curiosity and most often a direct vested interest in the outcomes of our elections. And China is no exception. Miles details the CCP outlook on US elections and highlights their past and continued attempts to interfere and sow chaos in our democratic systems. And we close with a quick glance again at the North Korean troops in Ukraine, but use it as a catalyst to review the prevailing narratives about China's calculus inside the China-Russia-North Korea axis. Happy Tuesday Miles. It's good to see you.
Miles Yu:
Good to see you again, Phil.
Phil Hegseth:
This is a special Tuesday that I don't think I have to lay that out for any of our listeners. Think it's pretty clear. So we're going to talk about what everybody's talking about today, and that's the US election. But Miles, what would people hear about the election, these campaigns, on this podcast from Miles Yu that they wouldn't hear anywhere else?
Miles Yu:
That's because we're unique. [Right.] We have a nonpartisan approach to the election. One of the things that's really important is that there are so many people in the world who care about the result of the election. In a way, almost like Democracy 101. People observe the processes, people care about the issues that are discussed in America. So, it shows that once again, America is not an ordinary country. It's an extraordinary country, whose fate actually would affect tremendously the destiny of the other parts of the world. So as Americans, we should all be very proud of this.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah. Well, we kind of set the tone for democracy. And so, what is so unique about the US presidential elections in relation to not just their grandiosity and their importance, but also the system in and of itself?
Miles Yu:
First of all, United States election season stands out as very unique because it's very long. [Yeah.] It is almost like more than a year in the actual sense. It also involves a lot of sectors of society. It's almost like an industry in a way. For the world, of course, it's a pastime to observe the world's, the oldest democracy in action. You can see from some of the issues discussed, it's not just about the domestic bread and butter issues like in most other countries elections.
A lot of issues reflected in any American presidential elections in the last century is necessarily the issues of most people in the world would care about. [Yeah.] It's about global security, it's about global commerce, it's about technological advance. It's about basically US policy and its impact on everybody. So in a way, not everybody is like bystanders because US policy will indirectly, in most cases, impact their own lives as well. That's why it's really, really fascinating to watch American election in action. Personally, I think one year is too long. I mean, in most cases, particularly in a parliamentary system, [like] in the UK for example, it lasts a few weeks and then it's gone.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, no, it is unique in the fact that you're not just voting for something that you want to happen here in the States, but you're also voting for a way of life and a standard that [That's right.] you want to be upheld around the globe.
Miles Yu:
And there is something else. That is, unlike in most democracies where mostly parliamentary democracy, you vote for the party. In the United States, the party elections normally take place in the form of electing senators and congressmen. American presidential election is elected one individual completely separately from the election of the parliament of the Congress. So that's why you create an individual, that represents your candidates larger than real life, and you have to really promote that person to the maximum, or you have to demonize that person to the maximum. Depends on which perspective you're coming from. [Yeah.] That's why there's so much emphasis on individual image, individual virtues, and individual's capability to run the country. That's one reasons why the President of the United States tends to be very powerful.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah. Well, and the intensity of these campaigns has only grown as demonstrated by fundraising in the billions, spam texts to my phones also in the billions. But what is the room for improvement that is left in our system?
Miles Yu:
Well, American democracy was born in the backdrop of the Enlightenment, which is basically the 18th century phenomenon. [Right.] This country was created in the late 1700s, late 18th century. So, many of its mechanisms were reflections of 18th century technology, 18th century lifestyle. Even the principles, the fundamental creeds of this democracy are eternal, still a guiding light for this country and for the rest of the world. But the mechanisms, particularly the methods, are different when it comes during, in particular, when it comes to procedures. For example, the American elections normally take place on Tuesdays, so you cannot really guarantee the maximum amount of voter participation.
Now, there is a wonderful thing about American democracy that is, it has an enormous capability to redress some of the inadequacies. This year, for example, after the chaotic 2020 election, I say chaotic mostly because of exigency of COVID. So mail, mail-in ballot and [Right.] counting practices. So this election cycle 2024, it become much more mature and sophisticated. Many states, for example, my home state of Maryland, have multi-day early voting. So you could vote days before the actual Tuesday, which is November 5th, which is today. [Yeah.] So that we guarantee people you can vote. And also, they extended the voting hours. So normally the booth will be closed, won't be closed until eight o'clock in the afternoon, even in the early voting. So that's why you have this kind of method to redress the inadequacies.
Another thing, for example, in America, you asked me about the room for improvement. [Yeah.] Opinion posts, news media, 24/7 news cycles have actually tremendous impact upon voters willingness to vote either way. So that's why I think there should be some kind of rules as to when the news media should really stop publishing this highly partisan, biased polling results to influence the voter's willingness. So those kinds of things can be, many countries have done this, they have some regulations. And of course, voter ID right? Voter’s authenticity verification, that has to be done. But overall, I mean, one of the most important things about the 18th century vintage of American democracy is our voting system is overwhelmingly run by local authorities. There is no federal election mechanism. So, all presidential elections were handled by 50 states. Each state has different standards and methods. That's the reason why there's so much chaos. I think we should learn from new democracies like Taiwan for example, where there is a central election commission that has uniform standards. And so to minimize the opportunities for fraud or misinterpretation of results.
There's also something unique about these two candidates for the 2024 election. On one hand is a former president, Donald J. Trump, who had a four-year run. In 2020 he didn't prevail, and President Joe Biden become president. And many people say that the election right now is not about voting for somebody, rather it is voting for somebody you don't like. It's voting against somebody else. So this is the case that both sides recognize this. And that's why in this election cycle it is the same thing. In 2020, President Biden was not the leading candidate for a long time. The leader was Bernie Sanders, a sort of progressive candidate, shall we say, from the state of Vermont. He was a senator. So the Democrats, of course, didn't believe that he would win because the policy was pretty much too way to the left. So they sort of worked his way through the Democratic convention and got Joe Biden elected as the candidate, nominated him, rather. This year is the same thing. I mean, Kamala Harris is the senator from state of California, but she was not a good competitor. In 2020, she didn't even gain 1% of Democratic votes in the primary, so she was the first to dropout. But then she became a vice president candidate, and she was not a front runner until President Biden performed really badly in the first debate, and so luck play a very important role.
I consider Kamala Harris a very lucky person to even become the nominee of the Republican, Democratic Party. And President Trump, of course, is also very unique in a way. He breaks that traditional, conventional wisdom in the sense that, number one, he doesn't need money, so pay is not a problem. So he's a billionaire. Number two, President Trump is from New York City. New York City, he had to deal with a lot of tough guys. So he's constantly in the news being humiliated, being attacked, and being praised. So he's used to this kind of presidential material. Number three, he is a person of a lot of past histories, multiple marriages, and all kinds of dealings with a lot of people. And so the campaign issue really does not affect him as much in terms of personal opposition research material. So I think that President Trump is a very interesting person, and I think he'll go down in history as one of the most fascinating individuals in our system. And if you go to the White House, you'll see behind his Oval Office is a portrait of Andrew Jackson. Equally fascinating figure in US history, who also lost a controversial election in 1824. And then he lost to John Quincy Adams. So four years later, he came back in 1828, and win the presidency. And he basically is also a very, very unique and fascinating individual, unconventional figure. So I think that probably is the presidential comparison I would make. Incidentally, that's exactly 200 years later, 1824 and 2024.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, today's the day, we won't tell you who to vote for. That's obviously your choice. But we appreciate that Miles and just everyone has a vested interest here and no more so than China and the CCP. And so what's their read and take on this election? Why do they care about the US election? Why do they need to? They clearly need to.
Miles Yu:
Well, China traditionally has been interested, heavily invested in American election. That is, they focus on demonizing American system as chaotic, as inefficient, mostly for its domestic audience, so that they would sell the false narrative that the communist system is better than democratic system like the United States. So this is not an ideological gene, if you will. It's been going on for decades. Now, this time is different. Whenever you have a election that has very heavy China policy debate, and they, China, care about most, they would basically interfere in a very active way to make sure that American policy toward China will be moving toward their favor, Beijing's favor. That's why in the last several, at least three elections I think, China has intervened in the American election system in the most bizarre and malign way. And now of course, if you look at the China policy, the US-China policy took a dramatic turn from normalcy during the Trump administration. That's why China's effort in the previous two election cycles has always been focusing on reversing that China policy formulated during the Trump administration. Of course, that China policy has been bipartisan for the most part. So this is why, that gives China the purpose. So their interference in the American election was direct mostly through electronic disinformation campaign. Now we just have a…
Phil Hegseth:
Have we seen evidence, is there documented evidence of them interfering in this year's election?
Miles Yu:
Oh, absolutely. No, Microsoft, the world's leading software company, has a team. It's called the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center. They issue a report about 10 days ago, which basically says that China has conducted a robust influence operation targeted a handful of Republican candidates and congressional members who advocate for anti-Chinese policies. It's not anti-Chinese policies, they’re more realistic policies. They've particularly targeted several members in the US Congress who are running for reelection and whose China policies were very, very pronounced and very well-known and influential. Number one, they targeted the Tennessee Senator, Marsha Blackburn. They also targeted the Florida Senator, Marco Rubio. They also targeted the congressman from Texas, Michael McCaul. Michael McCaul is the House Foreign Relations Committee chair. He was very, very tough on China. And of course, there was also representative Barry Moore of Alabama.
So those individuals and their district, their election campaigns were heavily influenced by Chinese hackers. They do all the dirt against these people, and portray them as irrational, portray them as bad people. So that really, really is direct interference. But most egregiously, last Friday, the Microsoft team also revealed that the Chinese hackers, no doubt organized by the state, has targeted the phones, personal phones of former President Donald Trump and his running mate, vice president candidate Senator JD Vance of Ohio. [Geez.] So yeah, this is not a small issue, this is a huge issue. So their interference is very, very egregious. So we're talking about a sovereign country targeting United States direction, election, and this is something of serious matter. No wonder our China policy toward Beijing has changed for the better because of China's behavior. It has nothing to do with the American's intention. It has everything to do with China's own behaviors. This is a very perfect example.
Phil Hegseth:
For the examples that you mentioned like Blackburn and Rubio and others, what was the actual vehicle for the hacker's deployment of these narratives? Was it ads? Was it…
Miles Yu:
Oh, social media. [Social media, fake accounts?] Fake accounts, [Okay.] social media. Twitter, Instagram, and also TikTok of course. Now, listeners have to be mindful of the fact that each year, platforms like Facebook, Twitter, [Right.] they terminated tens of thousands of fake Chinese accounts spreading the[Unintelligible] of democracy in America, attacking the system of United States as ineffective, chaotic, as intrinsically bad. This is basically what China is doing. When we say China is playing long game, they do not really care as much about specific policies, they care about the fundamentals of American democracy. That's why instruments like TikTok is so dangerous because they use that to undermine the very sinews of the system in America.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, all these things are tied together. [Yup.] So we won't leave without giving you a non-election topic. And this week, we've seen headlines, we talked about them last week, of the North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. But let's talk a little bit more about China's response on this. And is there a narrative of China being upset about this move or, just what is the state of the Russian, North Korea, China relations right now? And we use that as the catalyst, but that's a big one.
Miles Yu:
Well, China likes to push the propaganda line. Somehow, it has some distance between Beijing and Moscow and Pyongyang. The fact is they're all together. There is no difference. There are no strategic disagreements about the major agendas the three countries hold together. So…
Phil Hegseth:
Well, I mean literally we just talked about the election interference that screams and rhymes with what we've heard the Russians have been doing in our elections for the last how many cycles of Facebook ads and Facebook groups and planted stuff, I mean, it's the exact same tactic.
Miles Yu:
Yes, there's this naive thinking that somehow North Koreans fighting for Russia in Ukraine somehow might upset China. No, China is actively participating in aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine through its enormous economic power, through its enormous technological power. So it's in China's interest, it’s in Russia's interest, is North Korea's interest that Ukraine would not prevail in this fight. So that's why North Korea could send troops to Russia and to fight in Ukraine, and Russia could organize the operations on the ground in Ukraine, but China is the big boss providing the finance, technology and also political cover for these two actors, Russia and Korea, to make sure that Russia could prolong the war in Ukraine. And along with it dragging the West, particularly United States, into that conflict, so that it will become a major strategic distraction for the United States whose strategic focus has shifted to focus on China in the Indo-Pacific. The bottom line is China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, they'll act together. Their main agenda is a shared one that is anti-west, to upend the international order as we know it. So there is no strategic schism among those four. They work together. The only difference is that China is a big boss. Other three are proxies bankrolled by China, and they only have division of labor, and that's it.
Phil Hegseth:
Well that does it for our election day coverage and news. I appreciate you carving out some time on a busy day like this Miles. I'm sure we will have plenty to talk about next week. Hopefully we get some resolution and our eyes on the future of what a new administration may have on their hands with China. Excited to see where it goes. Thanks for joining us.
Miles Yu:
Well, if you're American and if you live in the US or overseas, please don't forget to vote.
Phil Hegseth
Get out there.
Miles Yu
God bless America.
Phil Hegseth:
Amen. Thanks Miles.
Miles Yu:
Thank you for listening to this episode of China Insider. I'd also like to thank our executive producer, Philip Hegseth, who works tirelessly and professionally behind the scenes for every episode to make sure we deliver the best quality podcast to you, the listeners. If you enjoy the show, please spread the word, for Chinese listeners please check our monthly review and analysis episode in Chinese. We'll see you next time.