The Elephant Not in the Room
On February 17, French President Emmanuel Macron gathered the leaders of Denmark, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European Commission, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to reaffirm support for Ukraine. But NATO’s second-largest military power, Turkey, was conspicuously absent.
While Europe deliberated and the United States engaged Russia in Saudi Arabia, Turkey maneuvered to reshape the strategic theater. By hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent a clear signal that Turkey remains a key player in shaping Ukraine’s future. Zelenskyy reinforced this, stating that “the European Union, Turkey, and the UK . . . should be involved in conversations and the development of the necessary security guarantees with America regarding the fate of our part of the world.”
Turkey’s Broader Geopolitical Contest with Russia
For Ankara, Ukraine is not an isolated conflict. It is part of a broader geopolitical contest with Moscow. Turkey and Russia have clashed across multiple fronts, from Libya to Syria to the Caucasus, and the nations’ rivalry is now expanding into Africa. Russia seeks to further entrench its paramilitary footprint as Turkey extends its political, military, and economic reach on the continent. Mercenaries linked to the private military company Wagner operate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, while Turkey engages with state-to-state partnerships, defense contracts, and infrastructure deals in the Sahel, offering what Moscow’s mercenary-driven model cannot. And in the Red Sea, Ankara is deepening its presence in Sudan while Russia eyes a naval base in the country.
The Ankara-Moscow dynamic is a multi-theater balancing act—cooperative when convenient, combative when required, and always driven by a strategic calculus. But in Syria and Libya in particular, Turkey has dramatically exposed Russia’s vulnerabilities.
In Syria, Turkey has repeatedly clashed with Russian-backed forces. For instance, during the Syrian Civil War, Turkish troops blocked a Russian-Assadist offensive in Idlib. But the Russian military’s position in Syria is increasingly exposed after Russia failed to save the Bashar al-Assad regime and the Kremlin underestimated Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, which were essential to Moscow’s control.
Crucially, the collapse of Russia’s once-formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system in Syria—designed to deter NATO operations—has altered the operational landscape. With Russia no longer able to sustain robust air defense coverage, Turkey has far greater operational freedom in Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey’s influence over Syria’s current government grants Ankara additional leverage over Moscow, especially as Russia withdraws its military presence at Hmeimim Air Base and its main Mediterranean Sea foothold at Tartus.
In Libya, Turkey’s military intervention proved decisive. By backing the United Nations–recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) against the Russia-supported Libyan National Army (LNA), Turkey forced Russian-backed militias into retreat, dismantled Wagner‘s operational stronghold, and altered the war’s trajectory. This shift not only curtailed Russian influence in North Africa but also solidified Turkey’s long-term presence in the region. As a testament to this growing influence, the African Union recently announced that Libya will host the African-Turkish summit in 2026—a move that underscores Turkey’s deepening of its strategic foothold at Moscow’s expense.
Bridging the Gap: Why the West Needs to Engage with Turkey
From the Mediterranean to the Caspian, Turkey is not just engaging in force projection—it is executing a strategic realignment, disrupting Russia’s operational calculus, and forcing Vladimir Putin into a reactive posture.
In this context, hosting Zelenskyy helped Turkey maximize its leverage over both the East and West. First, Turkey’s strategic detachment from European affairs helps Ankara strengthen its position with Moscow, as Russia views Turkey, which is unencumbered by EU constraints, as a neutral player it can engage with. Second, its military autonomy, particularly in drone warfare and arms production, aligns with President Donald Trump’s push for self-reliance within NATO. The president openly praised Turkey after its military successes in Syria. Third, despite its dealings with Moscow, Turkey remains one of Ukraine’s strongest backers, steadfast in defending Kyiv’s territorial integrity and countering Russian expansionism.
Supporting Ukraine constrains Russian expansion in the Black Sea and strengthens Turkey’s strategic position. From Ankara’s perspective, a resilient and sovereign Ukraine is a crucial check against Russian dominance in the region. Unlike the many European nations that hesitated to support Kyiv, Ankara moved decisively. Days after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention, closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits to Russian warships—a move that, while framed as neutrality, severely restricted Moscow’s ability to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet.
On the battlefield, Turkey has armed Ukraine with one of its most effective weapons systems: the Bayraktar TB2 drone, which also proved decisive in Libya. These drones helped Ukraine destroy Russian armored columns and naval assets, tipping the balance in key battles and allowing Turkey to influence the war without direct military engagement.
By arming Ukraine with one hand and dealing with Russia with the other, Turkey has used strategic leverage to great effect. While the US and Europe debate their next move and fine-tune aid packages, Turkey has kept Russia stretched thin across multiple fronts—a tactic Western capitals are unable or unwilling to employ.
Macron’s Paris summit displayed European unity but revealed a strategic miscalculation. Turkey’s role in countering Russia, especially in NATO’s southern neighborhood, is too big to sideline. Underestimating Turkey is not just shortsighted—it is a strategic failure. If Europe is serious about reinforcing Ukraine and keeping Russia in check, it needs to engage with Turkey as a key strategic partner.
Meanwhile, Turkey is not awaiting any consensus. Ankara will continue to exploit gaps in Russia’s geostrategic posture in line with its own interests. The West should recognize Ankara’s strategic significance and seize the opportunity to cooperate on shared priorities before time runs out.